Despite 9-11

3 Pages 779 Words

DESPITE SEPTEMBER 11, no president is going to make a speech from the Oval Office saying, “Guess what, folks? Today I’ve decided to send American forces to invade Iraq and replace Saddam Hussein’s regime. God bless and good night.”
Remember that at the height of the Cuban missile crisis—when the Soviet Union was placing offensive nuclear missiles in Cuba aimed directly at the United States—John F. Kennedy rejected the option of attacking Cuba. “I don’t think I want my brother to become another Tojo,” explained Robert Kennedy, referring to the general who planned the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
If the administration wants to take military action against Iraq—and I believe it should—it will have to find a provocation, a casus belli. Some suggest that we push Saddam Hussein and hope he reacts. Kenneth Pollack, the Council on Foreign Relations scholar, proposes that the United States launch a major covert operation against Saddam. When confronted in the past, he has lashed out. In 1996 the CIA helped launch a Kurdish uprising against him. In response he invaded Arbil, a Kurdish city under the protection of the Anglo-American no-flight zones. If once again we make him feel the heat, Saddam might do something stupid, like attacking his neighbors or collaborating with Al Qaeda.
It’s worth trying but probably won’t work. Saddam knows that America is praying he will do something provocative. He has learned his lesson from 1990, when small concessions from him might have derailed the gulf war. “Saddam is not going to do us a favor,” said Charles Duelfer, who was deputy chairman of the U.N. inspections team from 1993 to 2000.
All of which means, inevitably, that Washington will have to try to provoke a crisis over inspections. The United States should propose a new and vigorous system of U.N. inspections—with a clear deadline for compliance. If Saddam refuses or delays, he will give America a ratio...